Tuesday, May 21, 2013
Track the Election Results
Yes, One More Time.... Go Vote, and Go Vote Right!
- JOHN CALLAHAN- Northampton County Executive
- KERRY MYERS, JASON TOEDTER, BILL WALLACE, DEB HUNTER, and CHRISTEN BORSO- Northampton County Council
- ABE KASSIS- Judge of the Court of Common Pleas
- J. WILLIAM REYNOLDS- Bethlehem Mayor
- KAREN DOLAN, BRYAN CALLAHAN, and ADAM WALDRON- Bethlehem City Council
- JUAN CAMACHO and WESLEY BARRETT- Lehigh County Commissioners Districts 3 and 5.
- KIM VELEZ, DAVID MELMAN, ALPHONSO TODD, and CARMEN BELL- Allentown City Council
- BILL PEDUTO- Pittsburgh Mayor
- MICHAEL MITCHELL and JEFF YOUNG- Palmer Supervisor
- JOE WATERS- Judge of the Superior Court
Please vote in today's primaries, Pennsylvanians.
Need Help Finding Where to Vote in PA Today?
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| Photo by Richard Wilkins Jr. |
Weather.com reports good weather in Bethlehem this morning, and no rain before 10 pm. The same is true for Easton and Allentown. Philadelphia has no rain in the forecast. Pittsburgh is clear until around 7 pm, when thundershowers are possible. From about 1 pm on, our friends in Erie will have thundershower threats as they vote. Our friends in Scranton will elect a new Mayor, and they'll contend with storms from 4 pm on. Our friends in Harrisburg and SouthCentral PA will see rain roll in around 7 pm. The same is true in Johnstown tomorrow. Up in Happy Valley, I'll sound like a broken record, but rain around 7 pm.
Happy Election Day to ALL!
Need to be Mad to Vote? Jeffrey Skilling Can Help.
In other words.... walk free, and pretend this didn't really happen, Jeffrey. You may have defrauded people of their life's savings, ruined shareholders portfolios, and killed the energy market in the Western states, but oh well! You're wealthy, have good lawyers, and agreed to play nice and give us a little of your money back to get out of jail, so you're good!Confirming that America’s corrupt Wall Street oligarchs and corporatist plutocrats will always be allowed to rape and pillage the general public without substantial retribution for their criminal actions, federal prosecutors have cut a deal with Jeff Skilling, the mastermind behind the Enron scandal (which is the biggest securities fraud of all time), to let him get out of jail by 2014.While petty street-level drug dealers and harmless drug abusers rot in American prisons, federal prosecutors are ready to reduce Skilling’s 24-year sentence by over a decade, only 7 years after he was convicted by federal jury on 19 counts of conspiracy, securities fraud, and insider trading.In return for the reduced sentence, he has agreed to stop fighting his conviction in court and disburse more than $40 million in personal funds to former shareholders which were victims of the fraud. Considering his likely reduced sentence for exemplary conduct behind bars, this fraudster, that has ruined the lives of hundreds of thousands of Americans, will be able to walk out a free man as early as 2017, reducing his sentence to only 11 years!
This is flat out sickening. Guys will serve longer for selling some dope.
Ruben Amaro Doesn't Care What Moves You Want to Make
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| Don't even think you'll see Asche.... |
This wasn't the only incident of this kind of debate tonight. Why not bring up Darin Ruf? Well, I happen to be in the pro-Ruf crowd, but do you think bringing him up is going to totally turn the fortunes of this team around? He's hit decently well in AAA ball, but decently well doesn't translate into Albert Pujols the way some people imagine. Do I think he's provide needed pop, sure, but where would he play? How well would he play there? These aren't easy questions.
Fans always want to see the best talent, even if only by marginal standards, up with the real club, playing real games. I understand that. What fans have to understand is that this won't change the season that much, and Ruben Amaro has other concerns. Sometimes that higher-ceiling prospect has a flaw in his game that could be exposed in the majors, and needs more work first. Sometimes bringing up that prospect could cause a playing-time issue that diminishes the value of a veteran the GM would like to trade away for something. Sometimes they know a prospect isn't as good as the stats say. Having Ruf up for 200-300 plate appearances is probably not going to either increase his trade value, or save the season. Sure, he may have more power than say John Mayberry Jr., but Mayberry is out of options, and plays better defense, both of which are concerns to a GM. You can say Ruf is better than Mayberry, and I may agree with that evaluation, but show me the difference that makes it worth it to have Ruf sitting instead of playing, to DFA Mayberry, and to give up the defense. If you can't clearly quantify, or the difference isn't crazy obvious, there's no reason to make the move, right now. Would I do the move? Yeah, I would. Is it possible that there are concerns that I don't know enough to share with the front office that cause them to have a different view? Yeah.
This is going to be a concern all year. There are talents in the upper minors, guys like Cesar Hernandez, Cody Asche, Darin Ruf, Jesse Biddle, and others, who fans will want to bring up to the big league club as that club continues to struggle in different areas. The odds are that we won't see many, or any, of them before September. It's just as possible that next season, with these guys possibly on the roster, that fans will lament the guys we let leave before them. This is the "Johnny-come-lately" nature that we all have naturally as fans, and need to fight. Just as bad as you want to see these guys come through the door instead of the "AAAA" guys like Rosenberg and Cloyd, you have to try to not get mad when they're going through their growing pains later. We've went through this with Dom Brown, and tonight he hit his club leading 8th homer. Is he perfect, or complete yet? No, but he's about the only player so far this season who has shown any kind of upside or future potential that we can be excited by. There's a good chance that next season we watch he and Freddy Galvis start and continue to blossom, while some of these young guys people want to see come up. Just realize that patience is a virtue, both now and later.
Yes, Bring Back the Charlotte Hornets
The return of the Hornets to Charlotte appears to be under way.The team now known as the Bobcats is working to claim the nickname of Charlotte's first NBA franchise, CBSSports.com reported Friday night. Specifically, the digital domain name NBAHornets.com was registered on Wednesday by a media arm of the NBA, CBS reported.
Why is that important? The CBS report said that arranging digital assets is important in any name change. Domain names such as CharlotteHornets.com and Hornets.com, which also are owned by the NBA, are already in use; they redirect to the official site of the New Orleans Pelicans.
The first Hornets franchise moved to New Orleans in 2002 but officially was renamed the Pelicans this month.
The NBA owns the Hornets name, so no wrangling with the Pelicans is needed if the Bobcats want to make the change.The people of the Carolinas love their basketball. Giving them back their heritage as a franchise could be the first, albeit small, step towards restoring this franchise and city as credible in the NBA. This would be a welcome move, and would probably be popular back in Charlotte.
Climate Change is Real.
It's called global climate change, and it's real. In fact, it's happening fast, and it's a huge problem.
Yes, that's the data. Yes, I know "how can it be global warming when we get huge snow storms in April," or "if it's global warming, why was it so cold in March." You get these stupid statements all the time, and usually when you do, your arguments back aren't as persuasive as that little bit from Glenny Beck. I guess if you don't want to understand that our carbon pollution is causing heating at the atmospheric level, and causing extreme weather of all kinds, you don't have to, even if you should. Please though, don't try to tell me that the story of Noah's Ark proves climate change is natural. You sound like a loon.Yes, unchecked warming is likely to prove the greatest scandal in U.S. history.Certainly it’s the one that will ruin the lives of the most people, far more than Watergate did if our government doesn’t act to expose what’s going on and work to put an end to it — before it puts an end to our stable climate:Scandalous: Projected warming this century (in red, via recent literature) if humanity allows current carbon pollution trends to continue compared to the temperature change over past 11,300 years (in blue, via Science, 2013).
Want to Help Oklahoma?
VOLUNTEERS, DONATIONS NEEDED
Moore, Oklahoma has been devastated. Families destroyed. Children gone. What do we do in this country? We help each other. We help each other grieve, we help rebuild. If you can read an article online, you can take a second to donate. If you can spend an afternoon at the pool, you can just as well spend it loading life necessities onto a truck to those who have lost everything. If you can Tweet or get on Facebook, you can click two buttons to send cash.Here’s how:PHONE DONATIONS:Salvation Army:
Text STORM to 80888 to donate $10 to the recovery and relief effortsRed Cross:
Text REDCROSS to 90999 for Redcross to give $10ONLINE DONATIONS:Mercury One is taking online donations and sending trucks
If you're closer, click on the link to her page above and help them those ways too.
About Your Thoughts and Prayers
This gets me to my point- every day is the day before a disaster somewhere. Every day is a chance to better prepare our first responders, to take steps to prevent disasters to begin with, and a chance to save future lives, if only we took the time to fight for it. Every day is a day to take steps to tamp down extreme weather. Every day is a chance to properly fund out first responders. Every day is a day to be better prepared. And yes, every day is a day to stop thinking every action we take collectively to better ourselves and our lives is a some kind of conspiracy.
I'm glad that when we see human suffering we all understand that we should think about them, and pray for them. I'm with you all. I'm saying a Facebook status on the matter is less effective than pushing for a more prepare, ready nation to combat these events.
Real Issues and Fake Ones
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| White House Photo |
At the IRS, there is an issue, in that it appears that IRS agents sent questions outside of the normal protocol to the conservative Tea Party groups.
There was an issue at the Department of Justice, in that they cast a wider net than they were supposed to, and didn't follow protocol.
None of that is getting discussed though.
We've spent months talking about the talking points supplied to an official of the government going on Sunday Morning television, an official who had no part in the actual operations in Benghazi.
Today, we found out the White House may have known the findings of the Inspector General's probe at the IRS earlier, and of course the issue is now when the White House knew. What people think they are supposed to do with that at the time, I don't know, but hey, that's what we're discussing.
We're also discussing the freedom of the press being under assault in the DOJ situation. News flash to the press: You lost the cases about the government probing leaks long ago, this is not the attack now.
With all of these situations being discussed for non-issues that don't actually matter (none of those matters have anything to do with improving future performance, or for that matter an actual cover-up), it's time to introduce some new questions: Does the media totally run Washington? Can the Republicans literally call anything a scandal and get some coverage of it? Do we even care about the actual issues? Should we just admit politics is turning into television programming and be done with it?Do Sunday morning talk shows now count as "under oath?" Is it a White House's job to tout negative news about administration functions?
Oh.... and why are we still discussing these as "scandals?"
Monday, May 20, 2013
Who You Should Vote for Tomorrow and Why
NORTHAMPTON COUNTY
Executive-
John Callahan-
About a week ago I was considering some of the alternatives yet, but I have a hard time doing so. First off, John runs the gem city of the Lehigh Valley (though Easton is starting to give it a run). Second off, after ten years of running it, and people saying he doesn't deserve the credit for how great it is, he now deserves it. Third, he not only promises to keep Gracedale public, he also won't sign a no-tax pledge that will cripple him into bad decisions. Fourth, he has a strong record on economic development in Bethlehem, and can bring that to the rest of the county.
Why not McClure? Honestly, it's the no-tax pledge for me. I don't like those things, and they lead to bad decisions. Why not Reibman? I honestly can't shake that he allowed his last administration to be poisoned publicly by hiring people who in many cases made bad decisions. It's Callahan leading a pretty good field though.
Council-
Deb Hunter, Kerry Myers, Jason Toedter, Bill Wallace, and Christen Borso-
Another hard call comes down to this for me- who's likely to push the issues, and defend the interests, that I care about. In Deb Hunter, you have a woman who has experience working with local budgets on the Nazareth School Board, and therefore the experience at having to defend those with no voice in tough budget times. We'll need that. In Myers, you have a man who spent his time on the Easton School Board advocating for the people of his district, the people of South Side, who are often overlooked on the board despite their needs. We need an advocate for the disadvantaged like that. In Toedter, you have a young man, who can defend the younger population's interests here, and also will be a leading voice on making the county energy efficient. In Bill Wallace, you get a man who's shown a past understanding of our public transportation issues in the Valley, and will bring them back to the fore-front. In Borso, you get the "little engine that could" candidate, who has been at the county meetings, raising money, hitting doors, and doing everything right, and that counts with me.
Why not Seyfried? Honestly, no really great reason except that I prefer those five, and he'll probably win a spot anyway. Why not Heckman? I think he will attempt to stall Callahan's agenda in office, and we don't need that from Democrats. Why not O'Donnell? This kind of stuff.
Judge of the Court of Common Pleas-
Abe Kassis-
I think if you spend a career in the county DA's office, it can cut either way as a candidate. On the one hand, you can become a hardened enemy of the defendants, and a poor judge. On the other hand, you can gain a lot of perspective on what justice really is. In Abe's case, he got the better of it. Abe's time in a very solid DA's office is a positive, and from my perspective, if I was in court, his temperament seems right to me. Having talked to him a bit, I'm comfortable with him being on the bench. He edges out Sletvold with me mostly on the grounds of party affiliation- there are differences in judicial ideology between Democrats and Republicans, and that matters a lot. He's a Democrat, she's a Republican, even though she seems smart and capable. Spadoni probably lost me when he was tied to some of the anti-Gracedale decisions within the County's Elections office. As for Tom Carroll, he's a partisan Republican, and I don't think he'd expect to get someone like mine's vote.
CITY OF BETHLEHEM
Mayor-
Willie Reynolds-
By a mile. Bob Donchez ran a nasty, mean, issue-less campaign. Frankly, he's full of it. He thinks his time on council entitles him, because he's "next." No one's "next." Donchez has barely put out an idea in this campaign, and the one he did was more cops, which he has no idea how he's going to pay for them, or he just won't say. Donchez frankly just made stuff up, showed no vision for the future, and has a mixed record at voting with the successful current Mayor. He does not deserve this job.
Reynolds does. Willie ran a spirited campaign, knocking on thousands of doors, raising more money as he went, building a volunteer base, and running positive. His plan to improve Bethlehem neighborhoods is excellent. He shares Mayor Callahan's economic development vision. He's young, and understands that Bethlehem is always a forward thinking town. He's supportive of progressive social positions in actions, not just words. In a race of entitlement vs. new vision and hard work, you should always take new vision and hard work. Reynolds is the vote to move forward, Donchez is a vote based on seniority.
Council-
Karen Dolan, Bryan Callahan, Adam Waldron-
Yes, I'm saying leave a slot blank. Eric Evans will get his votes, and Steve Melnick will get his. If you want the most pro-Reynolds council, a council that will be tough but fair with him, you need these three to all win. Dolan and Callahan absolutely will. I have Waldron finishing just "out of the money" in fifth. If you want to change that result, bullet vote for three here.
LEHIGH COUNTY-
Commissioners-
District 3- Juan Camacho, District 5- Wesley Barrett-
I'm leaning a lot on friends over in Lehigh who told me their views on these two. Jones was picked to be District 3's representative Democrat because this Republican Council had to pick a Democrat. If you need a better sign than that of Camacho being the true progressive here, there you go. In Barrett's case, Democrats out in Emmaus tell me he's got the much better chance to actually win this race.
ALLENTOWN-
Council-
Kim Velez, David Melman, Alphonso Todd, and Carmen Bell-
If you are unhappy with the fiscal direction, you can only really pick these four or Darryl Hendricks to send a message to Allentown City Hall. Velez, the candidate that Pawlowski wanted out most, should be the biggest protest vote you make against the shenanigans surrounding the water authority. Melman, a lifelong Allentownian, is a solid young attorney who can help move the city forward. Todd has run a different race to be sure, but he's got the right priorities in this city to move council forward. Bell gets the last nod for her record of being an active progressive in the city.
PALMER
Supervisor-
Jeff Young and Michael Mitchell-
I haven't written much here on this race because I really just decided. To be fair, I've changed my mind on a few other things, but this one was hard. Ultimately, I asked myself this- why change? Palmer has been steadily growing, and is now the fourth largest community in Northampton County, with over 20,000 people. We're way ahead on issues like garbage collection (our study was cited a lot in Bethlehem's debate). We're ahead on smart development, as compared to other townships in the region. Our budget situation isn't bad, and neither is our tax situation. With all of that in mind, why not vote for a former Supervisor and a current one, even if they don't particularly stand out in this race? The other candidate, frankly, I have never heard of or from.
Statewide Judge
Superior Court-
Judge Waters is my pick here. He's also got the backing of the Democratic Party. This Philly native is a good pick.
Pittsburgh
Mayor-
Elections are about the future, not the past. So who gets you there? Jack Wagner has had a distinguished career, but this is his last job if he wins, as he's already done as Auditor General of the Commonwealth. Bill Peduto has run a more issues based campaign, is the more progressive, and has run the more passionate race. Elect him Pittsburgh.
Saying Some Nice Things About People I Haven't Said Much Nice About This Primary Season
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| Sherman would win for sure. |
I will start off with Glenn Reibman, the former County Executive and candidate for Executive. You will hear his time as Executive described as everything from success to failure between now and tomorrow, but to me it was on the balance successful. Lots of big, transformational stuff did happen, especially in the area of economic development. The worst thing I can say is that he hired people that let him down. If Glenn wins tomorrow, I'd be surprised, but there are far worse things that can happen to us, despite what you may read. He's a good man, and a smart one at that. Yes, he's run tough, but that's campaigns.
Next will be someone who is not necessarily having anything bad written about him, but by extension could viewed negatively, and that is John Morganelli. Morganelli's not on the ballot this year, but he and Bob Donchez are virtually inseparable. I've had plenty bad to say about Donchez, but don't think that translates negatively to my opinions on Morganelli. I'm a huge fan of Morganelli's prosecutorial work. I will be supporting him in his future elections, as I think he's great at his job, as do most people around here.
Other blogs have been very critical of Easton City Councilman and political consultant Mike Fleck. I've been brutal on some of his clients this spring. Let me just state for the record that I don't dislike Fleck at all, nor do I think any of the negative things that have been written on other sites about him. I happened to come up on the other side of the ledger from him on races this year. I still think he's a good guy.
I've gone back and forth between friendly and critical of Lamont McClure too. I'm a big fan of Lamont. I think his service on council, on the whole, has been a plus. His advocacy for labor and workers is important in a day and age where there is not enough of that. Democrats like him are an in-demand commodity yet. I think he's run a tough race, I just don't agree with no-tax pledges.
I don't really know Jerry Seyfried or Ron Heckman, the two elder statesmen running for County Council this year. I haven't been as positive on their candidacies as others. I'm sure there's plenty I could learn from those guys though.
Ok, enough being nice, there's a primary tomorrow....
Phillies Weekly Preview, 5/20-5/26
Philadelphia Phillies (21-23, NL East-3) @ Miami Marlines (12-32, NL East-5)
Where: Marlins Park
When: Monday-Wednesday 7:10
TV: CSN Monday- Tuesday, PHL 17 on Wednesday.
Pitching Match-Ups:
Monday- Cole Hamels (1-6, 4.61) vs. Alex Sanabia (2-6, 5.00)
Tuesday- Tyler Cloyd (0-0, 2.84) vs. Jose Fernandez (2-2, 3.48)
Wednesday- Cliff Lee (4-2, 2.83) vs. Kevin Slowey (1-4, 3.44)
On the Phillies- Well, they just won a series against the mighty Reds, and did so dramatically beating Aroldis Chapman. They will be looking to build momentum here.
On the Marlins- They're not going anywhere, but their rotation is tougher than one might have thought.
PREDICTION- It won't be pretty or easy, but the Phillies will win 2 of 3.
Phillies @ Washington Nationals (23-21, NL East-2)
Where: Nationals Park
When: Friday 7:05, Saturday 7:15, Sunday 1:35
TV: Friday CSN, Saturday FOX, Sunday PHL 17
Pitching Match-Ups:
Friday- Kyle Kendrick (4-2, 2.82) vs. Jordan Zimmerman (7-2, 1.62)
Saturday- Jon Pettibone (2-0, 3.00) vs. TBD
Sunday- Hamels vs. TBD
On the Nats- They have some injury issues in the rotation, making it probable that we'll see Haren and Duke over the weekend, in some order. They're a pretty similar team to the Phillies so far- good pitching, bad hitting. They're similar in record too. I won't call this series "big," but it's been on my calendar.
PREDICTION- Friday night features two hot pitchers, then both teams pitching "issues" come into play after that. I can't stand the Nats, so this is hard to pick. I'll make myself sick a moment. Nats 2 of 3.
Re-Visiting Occupy as a Historical Event
Happy 80th Tennessee Valley Authority
The New Deal.... the birth of prosperity and the middle-class in this country.Thousands of people displaced and their farms submerged. Natural habitat destroyed. Libertarians decrying the federal nationalization of power generation. Billions of dollars spent on stimulus. Supreme court challenges about States' rights and the Federal Governments authority and jurisdiction.It sounds like a cross between the Three Gorges Dam in China and the American Senate today, but in fact it was all about the Tennessee Valley Authority, founded on May 18, 1933.
Prediction- Peduto Will Win in Pittsburgh
I'm not marrying myself to the numbers due to the fact that this is one poll, but the point is he's leading all the polls, and he's facing the more "incumbent" candidate in Wagner, a former State Auditor General. I don't see Wagner rolling in the undecideds to win. If I were him, I'd push turnout in the areas of the city that he's strong in. It's a different, and risky strategy, but it's all he's got. With that said, I don't think he'll win anyway. Bill Peduto is the front-runner to be Mayor of Pittsburgh.Ok this is really huge. The final poll of the Pittsburgh Mayor race, from Susquehanna, shows Bill Peduto leading Jack Wagner by 9 points, 42-33.But wait aren’t there a lot of undecided voters? Sure, there still are about 16% undecided, but when the pollsters pushed them to say which way they’re leaning, Wagner only gets 20% of them. With the soft supporters included, Peduto still has a 7-point lead – safely above the poll’s +/-4.88% margin of error.Wagner would need to win 80% of the undecided voters to overtake Peduto’s lead. Could that happen? It’s unlikely in the extreme. What typically happens is that the undecided vote breaks down roughly the same way as the top-line numbers, or a bit more toward the candidate with the momentum.
Softening the Tone? Not in Virginia.
That's not the craziest guy on their ticket though.
Meet E.W. Jackson.
Of course, the very process that picked this freak-show is insane itself:E.W. Jackson, a minister from Chesapeake, won the nomination for lieutenant governor with a full-throated appeal for limited government, traditional families and gun rights. “We will not only win an election in November, we will open the hearts and minds of our people and save this commonwealth and save this country,” said Jackson, the first African American nominated by the Virginia GOP for statewide office since 1988.For attorney general, the party nominated state Sen. Mark D. Obenshain (R-Harrisonburg), who this year successfully pushed tougher voter ID rules. “Are you ready to stop Obamacare in its tracks?” he asked the crowd in his acceptance speech, eliciting cheers.
After losing their second presidential race in a row last fall, Republicans across the countrygot an earful on how to rebuild. TV talking heads, politicians and the party’s national leader advised the GOP to become more welcoming and inclusive, to change its tone on some social issues and to embrace immigration reform.
Some delegates saw the selection of Jackson as evidence that the party is heeding calls for more racial diversity.
Aside from that, Virginia Republicans are largely resisting that nudge to the middle. Their prescription for electoral success in 2013 and beyond calls for fielding candidates who are conservative and proud of it. One lieutenant governor candidate was accompanied by Oliver North. Another brought Allen B. West, the former Florida congressman and tea party hero.Yeah, toning down. The worst part is, this can be rewarded. In Virginia, they vote in odd number years. This drives down turnout, and gives these kinds of nuts a shot. This is why Virginia voted for the President twice, and has voted for Democratic Senators three straight elections, but has a fully conservative state government. The polls are even at conflict on this year's race. These nuts could win.
The Village Still Loves It's Idiots
Donald Rumsfeld.
Yes, Donnie boy was on TV, and talking about scandal and incompetence. The biggest foreign policy failure on every level in the last forty years was talking about another administration in any terms, let alone negative ones. The man who's Defense Department lead the nation into a war based on false pretenses, then mismanaged the occupation of two nations, and oh, just for the sake of it, also was on the job when we were hit on 9/11, is now telling us about how bad the Obama Administration does.
And yes, NBC gives this very stupid gentleman a platform to speak on.
That wasn't all though. They actually let the most useless creature of DC, Bob Woodward back on TV after his embarrassing spat with Gene Sperling and the White House over the sequester. This guy, who is rightfully a legend for his work on Watergate, but lately has just become the loudest voice for DC "village group-think," is now nothing more than a hack. Why does he still get to talk, when I'm not sure what kind of expertise he has? Oh, and what he said:
This is almost funny it's so stupid, and if you cue up the "please retire, sir," chants here, I won't blame you. Benghazi is possibly the biggest joke in politics today, a scandal that barely anyone really knows anything about, but 40% of Republicans think is the biggest scandal in American history. Ask them where Benghazi is and they may not know, but dammit it's big, and dammit, Bob Woodward agrees!WASHINGTON–Veteran journalist Bob Woodward accused Obama administration officials of invoking the worst instincts of former President Richard Nixon in their response to last year’s deadly attack on two U.S. compounds in Benghazi, Libya.“This is not Watergate, but there are some people in the administration who have acted as if they want to be Nixonian, and that’s a very big problem,” he said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”The longtime Washington Post journalist, whose reporting on the Watergate burglary led to the resignation of Mr. Nixon in 1974, questioned the Obama administration’s editing of talking points requested by congressional leaders days after the Sept. 11, 2012 attack killed four Americans, including Chris Stevens, the American ambassador in Libya.
Let's be clear here, Woodward is pushing a stupid story. To review- we know that the military did not want to send in personnel to save them and does not believe even today they would have been successful, the Ambassador himself said he did not need more security, and the CIA had questions about why the attack happened. What we are arguing about now is not the actual events in Benghazi, but the completely irrelevant talking points used by Susan Rice, who had no actual involvement in the issue, on a Sunday Morning Talk Show.
Is the problem obvious to you now?
The biggest problem we have, beyond even the money in politics, is the meshing of news and actual governing. The incredible amount of media in Washington allows, no, forces, Washington to have some of the most stupid debates ever. Solyndra, Benghazi, you name it, it's stupid. By the way, I'm not saying we don't have some dumb debates driven by MSNBC either, but rather that media on the whole loves creating stories that they think they can sell. Yes, we had a legitimate Watergate back in the day, but today we can have scandal after scandal, and false discussions of things like impeachment that have no practical value, but make great TV.
What you need to understand is that DC is essentially run by PR professionals. On Capitol Hill, find an office where there are not a few, or a lot, of media professionals. Find a bill not poll tested. Find a White House or Administration official who doesn't always have talking points when they go in public. Yes, talking points, not an honest, conversational discussion about what's happening, but talking points. Who do you think is in the media down there? Journalism majors and ex-spinmasters for Congress and the Administration.
Take all of that in, and then wonder why it is that getting something done isn't the goal down in Washington. That probably explains it even more than money.
Primary Election Predictions
Northampton County Executive-Democratic Primary-
I don't believe we'll see an upset here. Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan will win this race, and do so with 53% of the vote. Both Lamont McClure and Glenn Reibman will come in between 22-25% of the vote. I'm going to predict McClure in second, though if it's 25%+ behind first, there's no benefit to finishing there.
Lehigh County Executive- Republican Primary-
Ask yourself this question- has the GOP electorate in Lehigh County changed so much since 2011 that Browning will go from getting bounced in a primary to winning a bigger primary? I think not. I think he'll do decently, even crossing 40%, maybe even 45%. Scott Ott will win this primary, and the odds are better than not that he wins easily.
Bethlehem Mayor- Democratic Primary-
This race is one that probably is hardest to pick. There is no way to predict turnout in this primary. How many people show up decides who will win. My sense is that it will go late into the night, and neither breaks 52%. My prediction is that Reynolds will win by under 100 votes.
Northampton County Judge- Cross-Filed Primary-
If I felt the electorate knew the candidates as good as the insiders, I'd say Sletvold wins the GOP Primary, and Kassis the Democratic one. I can't tell that, and we don't know how the broader electorate will feel about this. I'll stick with Sletvold winning the GOP, and Kassis the Democrats, though I have this weird feeling it's the opposite.
Allentown City Council- Democratic Primary-
The easy answer here is to say "I don't know," and that's probably the truth. It's a nine-way with a couple of candidates from each demographic group that is prominent in the city. My guess is that O'Donnell, Hendricks, Melman, and Guridy get through.
Northampton County Council- Both Parties-
There are so many candidates in both sides that it's hard to keep count.
On the Democratic side, I'm betting that we see Seyfried, Borso, Wallace, Heckman, and Hunter in that order, narrowly edging out Myers, while beating Toedter and O'Donnell. I do think that's the order too.
On the Republican side, I'm betting that Ferraro, Benol, Vaughn, Geissinger, and Mezzacappa win, with Hesch and Phillips narrowly missing.
Palmer Supervisor- Democratic Primary-
There are three Democrats running for two spots. My guess is that former Supervisor Jeff Young and current one Michael Mitchell will edge out Franklin Lambert. It's basically just been a yard sign battle.
Bethlehem City Council- Democratic Primary-
This one is easy from first to third. Karen Dolan, Eric Evans, and Bryan Callahan will win. The last spot will be close between Adam Waldron and Steve Melnick, and I would predict a narrow Melnick win. David "Lump" Sanders will come up short.
Lehigh County Commissioners- Both Parties-
In District 2, it will be a very close race between Dougherty and Aquila. I think Aquila will win that GOP Primary behind Ott's strength at pushing out Tea Party voters. Republican Primaries are not broad appealing events anymore.
I think Jones and Camacho will be very close too, surprising a lot of people who think Jones is stronger than he is (have you looked at past results folks?), however I do think Jones will narrowly edge out Camacho in the Democratic Primary in District 3.
District 5 has both. In the GOP, I think that Schware will edge out Cusick, Brown, and Ryan for the nomination. On the Democratic side, I think Wesley Barrett will beat out Stephen Walters.
Magistrate in Easton- Cross-Filed-
I'm betting Tony Bassil, a Democrat today, will win the GOP Primary. He may win the Democratic one too. He's in a close battle with Grifo and Wheeler I bet. Koorie and Prendergrast seem to have decent support too, so I'm not sure really who wins. I bet Bassil and Wheeler win close races on Tuesday.
Superior Court- Democratic Primary
I wanted to break from the State Committee's endorsement, but I can't in my prediction. Joseph Waters history in Philadelphia as a winner and cop will win this race now.
Bangor Mayor- Either Party-
No one is running. Let me repeat- no one is running. Why do I have a gut feeling that John Brown will win as a write-in here? Joe Capozzolo should organize a few folks to write him in as a Democrat and hopefully he can get on for the fall.
That's my predictions for this primary. Let me know what you think. I'm sure there has to be some disagreement.
Sunday, May 19, 2013
Ouch.
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| From Buono's Facebook. |
Wow. That hurts. That hurts a lot.Q: Sen. Barbara Buono is having trouble raising enough money to qualify for matching funds. Could this bode ill for other Democrats, as well?GOV. BYRNE: Buono is way behind. I was way behind in 1977 and I was thinking, if it gets worse, I’m going to withdraw. It didn’t get worse. As a matter fact, it got better. But at one point I thought of dropping out in favor of a better-positioned candidate. I don’t know whether that consideration would appeal to Buono, but I would advise she make that evaluation.GOV. KEAN: You were a good candidate. She’s not. The able candidates in the Democratic party all decided not to run this year, so they were left without a strong candidate. She stepped forward and now the party is living with the consequences of that. And they may be felt up and down the ticket.
Stupid Statements Get Basic Responses
Texas grows, while Pennsylvania doesn't.
Could one reason be that Texas has fewer legislators?
Pennsylvania has half Texas’ population, but almost twice as many legislators, and they meet EVERY year, while the Texas legislators meet every OTHER year.
Pennsylvania legislators pay themselves more too.
Fewer politicians leads to growth.
Could one reason be that Texas has fewer legislators?
Pennsylvania has half Texas’ population, but almost twice as many legislators, and they meet EVERY year, while the Texas legislators meet every OTHER year.
Pennsylvania legislators pay themselves more too.
Fewer politicians leads to growth.
How about no?
I have another idea for why population in Texas is growing, but is not in Pennsylvania, and it's called immigration. America is growing, and it's growth is in the non-white population. Guess what's happening in Texas? The Hispanic population is growing there. Pennsylvania, a much whiter state, is not growing as fast. It's not difficult to figure it out.
Citing the size of the legislature here is the same as citing the temperature of the Delaware River for population growth, which is to say it's crazy. It's stupid talk. It's wrong.
Hi Washington, American Reality is Calling....
Um, about that....We are in the midst of the worst Washington scandal since Watergate. The reputation of the Obama White House has, among conservatives, gone from sketchy to sinister, and, among liberals, from unsatisfying to dangerous. No one likes what they're seeing. The Justice Department assault on the Associated Press and the ugly politicization of the Internal Revenue Service have left the administration's credibility deeply, probably irretrievably damaged. They don't look jerky now, they look dirty. The patina of high-mindedness the president enjoyed is gone.Something big has shifted. The standing of the administration has changed.As always it comes down to trust. Do you trust the president's answers when he's pressed on an uncomfortable story? Do you trust his people to be sober and fair-minded as they go about their work? Do you trust the IRS and the Justice Department? You do not.
Washington (CNN) – President Barack Obama comes out of what was arguably the worst week of his presidency with his approval rating holding steady, according to a new national poll.Don't tell Peggy....
All of these IRS actions took place in the years leading up to the 2012 election. They constitute the use of governmental power to intrude on the privacy and shackle the political freedom of American citizens. The purpose, obviously, was to overwhelm and intimidate—to kill the opposition, question by question and audit by audit.
It is not even remotely possible that all this was an accident, a mistake. Again, only conservative groups were targeted, not liberal. It is not even remotely possible that only one IRS office was involved.That's actually incorrect. We now know that liberal groups were targeted. It's obvious that the public doesn't think the President ran some IRS operation anyway:
Again, don't tell Peggy:According to the survey, which was conducted Friday and Saturday, 53% of Americans say they approve of the job the president is doing, with 45% saying they disapprove. The president's approval rating was at 51% in CNN's last poll, which was conducted in early April."That two-point difference is well within the poll's sampling error, so it is a mistake to characterize it as a gain for the president," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Nonetheless, an approval rating that has not dropped and remains over 50% will probably be taken as good news by Democrats after the events of the last week."The CNN poll is in-line with Gallup, which also indicated a very slight rise in Obama's approval rating over the same time period. And Gallup's daily tracking poll also indicated a slight upward movement of Obama's approval rating over the past week. But as with the CNN poll, it was within that survey's sampling error.
The White House is reported to be shellshocked at public reaction to the scandal. But why? Were they so highhanded, so essentially ignorant, that they didn't understand what it would mean to the American people when their IRS—the revenue-collecting arm of the U.S. government—is revealed as a low, ugly and bullying tool of the reigning powers? If they didn't know how Americans would react to that, what did they know? I mean beyond Harvey Weinstein's cellphone number.
And why—in the matters of the Associated Press and Benghazi too—does no one in this administration ever take responsibility? Attorney General Eric Holder doesn't know what happened, exactly who did what. The president speaks in the passive voice. He attempts to act out indignation, but he always seems indignant at only one thing: that he's being questioned at all. That he has to address this. That fate put it on his plate.Uh, yeah:
But more than six in 10 say that the president's statements about the IRS scandal are completely or mostly true, with 35% not agreeing with Obama's characterizations. And 55% say that IRS acted on its own, with 37% saying that White House ordered the IRS to target tea party and other conservative groups.
Ok, so I used to live in Washington, and I didn't like it. And yes, I will acknowledge that the polls also say there should be an investigation into all of the issues that came up last week. I do too, because the investigations are going to prove the obvious- all three scandals are examples of mid-level employees screwing up, not White House scandals. With this all said, only in DC can a complete and utter fool like Peggy Noonan, who served a President three decades ago and hasn't said much correct since, get on Meet the Press, get a column in major papers, and be heard when she says ridiculous and stupid things.
This is the problem- only in DC can this kind of stupidity reign. The village idiot can lead village group-think there. It's scary.
I'm not saying that no one cares about Benghazi, the IRS, or the AP. I'm saying the stories seem well confined. Benghazi was a failure, four people died, but it seems fairly obvious that Ambassador Stevens and the military leaders made the security decisions there, not Hillary and Barack. It's really not relevant what Susan Rice's talking points said either, but at least if you're going to crucify her for them, don't doctor your own evidence (here's looking at you, GOP). The IRS, an entity with which White Houses are all but banned from speaking, actually didn't do anything illegal, and maybe not anything wrong. I dare you to show me Karl Rove's Crossroads does that should make it a non-profit. That they also targeted liberal groups also pretty much means they were doing their jobs auditing these groups. If a few agents went too far in asking for documentation, expose them and their supervisors and fire them, and move on from the circus. As for the AP story, while it sounds bad, I'll wait until they issue indictments with the evidence in the leak cases to pass judgment. Perhaps the Justice Department was wrong, and perhaps it will prove to build a good case. To the extent that it sounds as though they broke protocol, proceed accordingly. Again, what does the President have to do with ongoing investigations?
Only in DC can this kind of utterly stupid discussion hold water. Sadly, DC is the capitol, so we're all subject to their village elders' stupidity.
Rand Paul is an Idiot
This is how the right-wing works. Say something crazier than the last guy, see yourself rise on the right.Some have argued the extra IRS scrutiny was part of a failed attempt to implement election law, as opposed to a political crackdown. Host Candy Crowley asked Paul why this interpretation was wrong. He couldn’t give her a reason:CROWLEY: We do know this one place processes 70,000 applications.Can you see in your mind’s eye a way this might not have been political, that this was a misguided stupid way to sort but that they didn’t intend it to be some kind of political attempt to harass the Tea Party?PAUL: I would think if there’s any chance that this was a mistake, the Investigator General wouldn’t be coming out and saying otherwise, and the IRS themselves wouldn’t be saying –CROWLEY: They say it’s a mistake. I think the question is whether it’s political.PAUL: Well, I think we’re going to have to see the memorandum. Apparently there is a policy, and I think we’re going to find there’s a written policy that says we were targeting people who were opposed to the President. And when that comes forward, we need to know who wrote the policy and who approved the policy…now there’s rumors who wrote the policy is the person running Obamacare, which doesn’t give us a lot of confidence about Obamacare.CROWLEY: Senator, I have to run. I’m way over on this, but I have to just go back to something you said. Are you telling me you think there’s a memo somewhere in which someone said in the memo we’re targeting people going after the president? Is that what I heard you say?PAUL: Well, we keep hearing the reports and we have several specifically worded items saying who was being targeted. In fact, one of the bullet points says those who are critical of the President. So I don’t know if that comes from a policy, but that’s what’s being reported in the press.It’s unclear what Paul’s source for that last claim is, but the Investigator General’s report Paul references found no evidence that conservative groups were targeted as part of a political strategy to weaken the president’s political opponents. The reportblamed independent IRS management for allowing the practice to go on in the lower-level Cincinnati office.
Reynolds' Pitch-Perfect Campaign
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| From Willie's Facebook |
They ran the race.
From his announcement to now, Reynolds has built about as perfect of a campaign as possible. First was the announcement on his front porch, then the most signatures I saw from a major candidate around here in petitions, and then his well-run volunteer operation came along. He even released some great ideas. He's been with the progressives all the way, including in our neighborhoods. Even as all of that unfolded, I wasn't quite sure. I still figured in the end Donchez would squeak by with a single digit win.
It didn't stop there.
Along came his office, and of course Donchez's negative mail. They started to debate, and Donchez stayed negative. Donchez was touting the support of Republicans and fired ex-employees. Ed Rendell was backing Reynolds financially too. Reynolds even out-fundraised Donchez in the final reporting period. Next thing we knew, we found out that Donchez was using a convict to consult on his campaign. Finally the Express-Times endorsed Reynolds. Then this happened.
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| Bernie's perfect shot. |
Some ask why Callahan is endorsing Reynolds. Well, he lives in Bethlehem, and can get attention for his opinion, so why not? John Callahan, after ten years as Mayor, must have some opinions on what kind of person should succeed him. He also must have an opinion of what kind of partner in governing he will want when he goes to the county. Finally, let's face it, it's good politics. Reynolds needs high turnout on Tuesday, and high turnout in Bethlehem is good for Callahan.
So how will this race end? I don't know for sure, and neither does anyone else really. I think if turnout hits 6,500 in the city Reynolds will win the race. Ten years ago, when John Callahan beat Jim DelGrosso, there were 6,700. I think Tuesday night will be really close in Bethlehem, almost regardless of how many people vote. At this point, the only reason being cited for voting for Donchez is that he's older, and it's "his turn." It wasn't Bill Clinton's "turn" in 1992. It wasn't Barack Obama's "turn" in 2008. It wasn't JFK's "turn" in 1960. We don't pick leaders based on waiting in line. We do it by picking the leaders who give us a positive vision to look forward to. Who did that in this race is painfully clear.
Here's what I know- if Reynolds hadn't run damn close to the perfect race here, he'd have lost this thing. He's probably run the best campaign of any candidate in the Valley for this primary, and one can only hope that good work is rewarded by the electorate on Tuesday.
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