- It's extremely hard to poll Iowa, and I think they may be getting it wrong. The current polling seems a bit all over the place. Rasmussen has Romney up clear, PPP has Gingrich tanking, Iowa State has Romney bombing, InsiderAdvantage has Perry surging, and none of them match exactly.
- I'm watching the money race closely. While Bachmann polls decently, she hasn't spent a dime lately. I doubt she does well.
- What is a likely caucus-goer? It's someone who has attended caucuses with solid frequency, depending on age. It's not who says they will come, or votes in primaries, or came once before.
- The caucus is not a straight vote-counting measure. It's about electing delegates to the state convention, where they pick national delegates. Winning reliably Republican counties, and big counties, matters most.
Ok, all of that done. Rankings time.
- Ron Paul- He seems to lead the most polls, and have the best organization, and oh yeah, his people will show up for him. I somehow doubt he wins, but can't say why he won't, or to who, so he stays here.
- Mitt Romney- I have a lot of doubts about how Romney will do in Republican-rich Western-Iowa. I have a lot of doubts that he can win Iowa, period. With all that said, look at what he's accomplished: he's convinced the field to not attack him, but to savage Gingrich.
- Newt Gingrich- Here's how simple it is: Newt needs to beat Mitt next week. I'm not sure if he can or not. He seems ready to savage him though.
- Rick Perry- Perry's spending a ton of money, and probably appeals best to the most reliable caucus-goer's, Evangelicals. Is he too much of a joke though? A top three would change that, and if he somehow got second or higher?
- Rick Santorum- He needs to beat Perry, period. He lacks money. What he lacks in money, he's put in on ground effort. What happens to him is a fascinating story.
- Michele Bachmann- She is banking on Iowa, but spending no money. Seems clueless to me.
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