Friday, April 20, 2012

New Poll: Kane Leads

The first polling I've seen in months. I can't call it shocking, but maybe a little surprising.
Kathleen Kane leads the Democratic race for Attorney General 42 percent to 33 percent, according to a poll conducted for her campaign. Both she and Patrick Murphy have strongly net favorable ratings.
“Kane is polling ahead of Murphy in every media market but Philadelphia and when figures are adjusted for anticipated voter turnout, Kane’s leads the race 42% to 33%,” the pollster wrote. “When accounting for leans among undecided voters, the Kane lead is 8%.”
The at-times negative tenor of the campaign apparently hasn’t had a significant effect on voter opinions. Murphy has a 44 percent net favorable rating among Democrats; Kane’s is 40 percent net favorable – as of April 15 when the poll was taken.

I'm not shocked- she's running positive spots with Bill Clinton, he's running negatives. I'm surprised the race is here though. Primaries across the state, but not in Philadelphia, could help her too.

All of this should prove that the only endorsements that ever help are ones where you actively do stuff, and even then it might bite you. Patrick Murphy was Barack Obama's first major PA endorser in 2008, and since then he's lost his seat, and is now in the fight of his life. Meanwhile much of the party establishment in Pennsylvania have lined up behind him, especially up here in the Lehigh Valley, but that's not helping him at all. Meanwhile, just one Bill Clinton endorsement, coupled with action from the former President, is doing a real number on him.

The moral of this story: if you aren't going to hit the ground hard, and if you can't move peoples' opinions majorly, don't endorse. No one cares in the positive, but those who are angry are real angry.

No comments: