Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Why Cartwright Is Favored

I'm on the record as supporting Congressman Holden, and I plan to vote for him next Tuesday, barring a major change. I think the Lehigh Valley needs seniority, not a freshman from the left, very possibly in the minority, who gets his base of support in Scranton. I also think that down the ticket, Holden will be a much bigger help to Democrats running in the Slate Belt, in the townships, in Monroe, Carbon, and Schuylkill too. With that said, Holden's got some votes that are easy to dislike, and I really don't care all that much which one of these two win. I'll vote for either in the fall, and next time when they're Congressman.

Roll Call is now calling Holden the underdog. I agree. I think Matt Cartwright will win next Tuesday, carrying Scranton, Easton, Wilkes-Barre, and Monroe. I think it would be worse if all of Monroe were in it. I think the heavy spending by Cartwright and anti-Holden allies will carry the day. Now again, I'm not sold that this is good for the party, but I think it's the truth at this point.

But why, you ask? Look at the map above. The only full county in this district is Schuylkill, which has very few Democrats in it. Carbon, where Holden will win too, is cut in half, and is the smallest county in the district. In Northampton County, he's wasted a lot of time competing in Easton, when winning Bethlehem, Palmer, and Forks Townships would net more votes. If you assume that Scranton and Wilkes-Barre area are not good territory (and Scranton is certainly not), then you come to a logical conclusion- Holden's only chance to turn this race around in the next week is to take the Townships in Northampton County, run it up big in the Slate Belt, and win Monroe County, which is expensive (it's New York City media). It's doable, but it's getting late.

If I had to bet right now, I'd bet on Cartwright.

No comments: