Weekly Electoral College Projections

While Republicans continue to hope for another 1980, it just isn't that. Romney isn't Reagan, and Obama isn't Carter, period.  If anything, Harry Reid's continuing beating of Romney's lack of tax returns is just continuing to make us look at Romney like we look at another Presidential nominee- John Kerry. Beaten into submission repeatedly by the SwiftBoat Vets for all of August before he responded, Kerry's summer beating is still widely known for having sunk his campaign. Not by making people believe he didn't really serve- but by his lack of response showing something about his character. Romney's in the same spot now. His lack of a tax return release, whether it convinces people he's a crook or not, is going to show him to be evasive, and overall shady- not characteristics of a winning Presidential candidate. Simply put, Romney's being defined as a crook, and he's not doing anything to stop it.

So where are we at right now? Here's my current electoral breakdown:

• Safe Obama- California (55), Hawaii (4), Oregon (7), Washington (12), Maine (4), Vermont (3), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), Connecticut (7), New York (29), New Jersey (14), Delaware (3), Maryland (10), DC (3), Illinois (20), Minnesota (10)= Total of 196
• Lean Obama Swings- Pennsylvania (20), New Hampshire (4), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (6), Ohio (18), Virginia (13), New Mexico (5), Colorado (9), Nevada (6), Florida (29)= 136 EV's, 332 electoral votes
• Lean Romney Swings- North Carolina (15), Indiana (11), Missouri (10), Nebraska CD-2 (1), Arizona (11)= Total of 48
• Safe Romney- Georgia (16), South Carolina (9), Alabama (9), Mississippi (6), Louisiana (8), Tennessee (11), Kentucky (8), West Virginia (5), Arkansas (6), Texas (38), Oklahoma (7), Kansas (6), Nebraska (4 of 5), South Dakota (3), North Dakota (3), Montana (3), Wyoming (3), Idaho (4), Utah (6), Alaska (3)= 158 EV's, 206 electoral votes

Romney will close this gap, I believe at least, as the election drags into the final month, when he will be spending majorly. With that said, right now he's too far behind to make that up. He needs to pull Florida back before October, otherwise it alone may swallow him up. The three western swings- New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada- continue to weigh in heavily on this race. Those twenty electoral votes are huge right now. They may end up forcing Romney to have to gamble on winning Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan- something no Republican has done since 1988. President Bush did contest these, however that was more to make Kerry spend money than anything else. Romney, with his poor standing with Latinos, may need to win all of them.