Saturday, December 1, 2012

Four Years For Angel Pagan? I'll Pass.

The rumors say the Phillies are serious players for the services of Angel Pagan. There are certainly much worse ideas out there- Pagan is a career .281 hitter, who just lead the league in triples, and won a World Series. He's a solid defender too. Not a bad idea, right?

The Phillies are apparently offering him four years at the price he wants. He's played over 123 games twice in his career. He's 31, and turns 32 on July 2nd. He's had just three seasons with over 600 plate appearances. He's coming off of career highs in hits, runs, triples, and walks. In other words, he's not young, and he's at his highest price ever. A four year deal takes him through his 35th birthday, and banks on a guy who's had two good years as a starter, and one mediocre one. The Mets gave up on him. We would be banking on him.

I question a deal of four years for Pagan on all levels, including the alternatives. Is four years for him much better than six or seven for Josh Hamilton, a much better player? Is four years for Pagan as good as signing Michael Bourn to a five year deal? Bourn is 29, a perennial stolen base crown contender, top of the line-up terror, and elite defender. He's also played 138 games or more the last five seasons, or every season he was a starter in the league. Why not just go five years with him if you're going to go four with Pagan?

If you want to go on the cheap, why not pick up a one year type and hope Tyson Gillies continues to progress? After hitting over .300 in Reading, he appears to be back on track, younger, and almost ready. He's presumably an Iron Pig on Opening Day, and the Phillies could hope to see him by the late portions of the season. Why give a four year deal out to a question mark instead?

I just don't see the logic to go four years with the fourth best, at best, player on the market for the position. In fact, twelve months ago, I would have rated Shane Victorino ahead of him, a player we would not go five years for. If they are willing to go long term, go get the best guys, if not, go cheap, but don't go in-between. Paying a lot for the fourth best guy on the market doesn't make sense to me.

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